DRAM Prices are about to fallen (see 13-Feb-96)

The price of 72-pin SIMMs now hovers at around £40 per 4Mb stick to the trade. This is the index I use - and it refers to the one-off price wholesalers will supply their customers at. Volume prices are obviously lower. Compare this to £85 at the beginning of the year.

The week before last it dropped to around £35, but it has gone up a bit since then. This is probably because no-one wants to hold too much DRAM stock at the moment in case they're left holding it when it slides again. A lot of smaller dealers got rather burned over this one already. The low stocks are leading to a shortage and this is what has put the price up. That and the fact that those holding over-priced stocks are reluctant to take the loss while there are punters out there who don't know what's happened.

If you're after 32-pin SIMMs you're out of luck. As they aren't made in quantity now I only expect an upward movement in their price from now on. That is £27/1Mb stick.

EDO RAM, on the other hand, costs no more to produce than the standard stuff. It only costs the end user more in order to get shot of the old producton. If you want to hold out it may well end up costing less in the future.

So is it going to drop again? Probably, and in the next few weeks. I don't expect anything dramatic; more of a slow sink. If I was forced to take a guess, I'd say around £27/4Mb stick by the middle of the Summer. I could be wrong. That's why I don't speculate in DRAM futures. © 1996 Frank J Leonhardt